Simulations key to emergency and climate planning: report

Computer simulation and interactive games could help communities and government with climate change adaptation and emergency management, according to a research report by RMIT University.

The report released this week follows a year-long project funded by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF), in which computer models were developed to simulate how people behave during flash flooding.

The research focused on the inner-Melbourne suburb of Elwood, an area prone to flood events that suffered severe flash-flooding and damage in 2005 and 2011.

Project leader Professor Lin Padgham said the report, ‘Exploring the adaptive capacity of emergency management using agent-based modelling’, analysed the use of sandbagging to protect against flash flooding in the suburb.

“Elwood has had two one-in-a-hundred-year flood events in seven years, causing millions of dollars in damage,” said Professor Padgham, Head of the Agents Group in RMIT’s School of Computer Science and Information Technology.

“Extreme weather events are increasing so there is a greater urgency for us to be prepared and to respond effectively.

“While this particular project focused on one suburb, the potential for the wider use of this technology is huge - to this end, we’ve since improved the tool so it can be used for any area in Australia where street maps and flood data can be provided.”

Using behavioural data gleaned from interviews with local residents and project partners, the City of Port Phillip and the Victorian State Emergence Services, agent-based modelling was developed by the RMIT team to tackle the problem.

The technology simulates the decision making of an individual, or ‘agent’, and replicates this behaviour across a sample population to illustrate the responses to various scenarios - in this case a flood event. As part of the project, the research team also developed an interactive game to show Elwood residents how to sandbag their properties.

“It’s exciting to see the enthusiasm with which agent-based simulation has been received by organisations, as a tool that can help them in their analysis of complex issues,” Professor Padgham said.

“Our long-term vision is to work closely with social scientists and end users to create support tools that make it much easier for governments and communities to use simulation technology to help inform planning, policy and local strategies.”

Recently, researchers at the National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training (NCGRT) developed a simulation to predict the movements of polluted groundwater from a contaminated site, allowing water managers to better locate and clean up the water.