Aus not yet on track to reach 2030 emissions target: report

A new report from ClimateWorks Australia, titled ‘Tracking Progress to net zero emissions’, finds that Australia is not yet on track to meet its emissions reduction targets under the Paris Agreement. The good news, however, is that there are many opportunities to still get there.

The report assesses Australia’s progress on reducing emissions at the halfway point from the 2005 base year to 2030, looking across the whole of economy as well as in key sectors — electricity, industry, buildings, transport and land. It found Australia needs to double its emissions reduction progress to achieve the federal government’s target of 26–28% below 2005 levels by 2030, and triple progress to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

The report found Australia’s emissions were 11% below 2005 levels in 2017 but have been steadily increasing since 2013. If Australia sustained the rate of improvement in emissions intensity it had achieved between 2005 and 2013, it could meet the government’s 2030 target — but progress has stalled in most sectors and reversed overall.

ClimateWorks Australia CEO Anna Skarbek said overall progress was mainly due to one sector — land — achieving strong emissions reductions, which masked growth in energy emissions in industry, buildings and transport. She noted, “The data shows national emissions progress since 2005 was driven by reduced land clearing and increased afforestation, some increases in energy efficiency and a slight reduction in power emissions as more renewable energy entered the market.

“However, emissions are now higher than 2005 levels in the industry, buildings and transport sectors. While there were improvements in each sector at times, none of the sectors improved consistently at a rate required to meet the government’s 2030 target or the Paris Agreement goal of net zero emissions by mid-century.”

Skarbek said the research showed that emissions are not projected to fall any further by 2030 under current and proposed policies, including the National Energy Guarantee with the proposed electricity target of 26% for the National Energy Market. Current and proposed policies would see emissions at 11% below 2005 levels in 2030, which is less than half the progress needed to meet the government’s current 2030 target and one-third of the abatement needed to reach the net zero pathway.

“Going forward to 2030, there is three times the potential needed to reach the government’s current 2030 target, but projections show this will not be harnessed under current policy settings,” Skarbek said.

“However, it is still possible to build on areas of recent momentum if Australia implements further policies that guide investment in a cleaner economy. Our research shows Australia has the potential to reach 55% below 2005 levels by 2030 and this would set our economy on the net zero emissions pathway needed for the Paris Agreement.”

Total emissions since 2005, projected emissions to 2030 under proposed policies scenario and the net zero pathway and gap to target. For a larger image, click here.

ClimateWorks Australia Policy Manager Anna Malos said the next two years will be critical if Australia is to unlock the potential for further emissions reductions, claiming, “Our analysis of recent progress shows that well-targeted policy can support emissions reduction activity and that macroeconomic factors can affect emissions. Supporting more progress in all sectors can get Australia back on track.”

Malos said the report shows opportunities to increase emissions reductions exist in all sectors, led by land (revegetation and afforestation), electricity (increasing renewables and phasing out coal), industry (energy efficiency, fuel switching and reducing non-energy emissions), buildings (increased standards for buildings and appliances) and transport (vehicle emissions standards and shift to electricity and low-carbon fuels).

“The electricity, industry, buildings and land sectors each have potential using proven technologies to go further than 26% below 2005 levels in 2030,” she said. “The transport sector takes longer but could still reverse its projected path of rising emissions, if support exists to accelerate the uptake of lower emissions technologies.”

Top image credit: ©stock.adobe.com/au/pict rider