National Electricity Market emissions fall to lowest level for 10 years

The pitt&sherry Carbon Emissions Index (CEDEX) for November indicates that greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation have fallen to their lowest level for 10 years. CEDEX has been providing early indicators for key greenhouse gas emission trends in Australia since 2007.

In the year to October 2012, emissions were 21 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is equivalent to a drop of 11.5% below the highest level reached during the previous 10 years. This reduction is equivalent to approximately 4% of Australia’s total national greenhouse gas emissions.

According to Dr Hugh Saddler, Principal Consultant, Energy Strategies, pitt&sherry: “The electricity sector is making a significant contribution towards Australia achieving a real reduction in its emissions.

“The latest data provide no clear evidence that electricity consumers have significantly changed their behaviour as a result of the July price increases. Demand has been falling at an average rate of approximately 2% per year for over two years, and October 2012 saw a continuation of this trend.”

Coal share of NEM generation continues to fall, with all four units at Eraring, NSW, shut down for most of the month to allow for repairs necessitated by a major steam leak failure at one unit during September.

In Queensland, one of the two units at Callide C was out of service for the whole month and one of the four 350 MW units at Tarong was shut down for an indefinite period early in the month.

In South Australia, by contrast, the Northern power station operated at near full capacity for most of the month, displacing output from the ageing Torrens Island gas-fuelled steam power station. Overall, black coal generation is at its lowest level since mid-2000.

In Victoria, annual generation at brown coal power stations in Victoria also fell for the third month in a row. The owners of the Yallourn power station, TRUenergy, shut down one of the four units indefinitely. Total brown coal generation in October was at its lowest level since November 2002.

“The fall in annualised demand from the peak of late 2010 is evident in all five state regions; the reduction has been greatest in NSW (7%) and least in Victoria (3%),” said Dr Saddler.

“Consumer actions of both businesses and households driving the demand reduction include energy-efficiency improvements, energy conservation and the installation of ‘non NEM’ energy sources such as photovoltaic, solar hot water and cogeneration.”

When addressing the motivation behind these actions, Dr Saddler concluded that, “These actions are driven by one or a combination of general economic conditions, higher electricity prices, energy-efficiency programs aimed at changing energy using behaviour, regulatory measures to mandate increased energy efficiency of appliances, equipment and buildings.”

According to the recently released Energy White Paper 2012 from the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism, by 2050 most of Australia’s conventional fossil fuel power generation is likely to have been replaced with clean energy technologies in the form of wind power, utility-scale and distributed solar power, geothermal energy, and coal- and gas-based carbon capture and storage systems.

The white paper also predicts that in 2050, greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector are expected to be 76% below what they would have been without a carbon price.