Energy roadmap for the next 20 years

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released its Draft 2024 Integrated Systems Plan (ISP), described as a roadmap for the energy transition in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over at least the next 20 years. This is in line with government policies to reach a net zero economy by 2050.

AEMO publishes an ISP every two years. The Draft 2024 ISP takes into account various changes that have occurred since the 2022 ISP was published, such as the release of the Commonwealth’s Rewiring the Nation policy along with its Capacity Investment Scheme and National Energy Transformation Partnership to support the large volume of energy-transition investment required.

In its most recent ISP, AEMO has noted that coal-fired power is moving out of the grid faster than predicted two years ago, as aging power stations struggle to compete with cheaper options. A shift to renewables is well underway, the ISP reported, with renewables accounting for almost 40% of the total energy delivered through the NEM in the first half of 2023, momentarily reaching up to a 72.1% share on 24 October 2023.

The draft plan has called for speedier construction of large-scale renewable projects and transmission lines, while noting rooftop solar will need to increase fourfold by 2050.

“The ISP has played a critical role in providing the roadmap to date. This draft in particular is calling for urgent action as the unreliable coal-fired power stations shut. And for the first time [AEMO] tells us the cost and benefits of following their ‘optimal path’; in short, doing it their way could save consumers $17 billion,” said Principal of Nexa Advisory and energy expert Stephanie Bashir.

“The ISP is the map. We need to get on the road and put our foot to the floor and build the renewable generation and transmission. Transmission continues to be the missing link, and every year we delay the build-out that is planned, it will result in higher bills. There has to be genuine engagement with the impacted communities and targeted supporting benefits to address regional community concerns,” Bashir added.

“Whilst AEMO is very focused on the big transmission and large-scale renewables and firming projects, it is great to see AEMO mapping out increased prominence of distributed energy resources (aka rooftop solar) and the acceleration ahead of expectations even 1–2 years ago,” said Tim Buckley, senior energy market analyst and director of Climate Energy Finance.

“AEMO makes it clear that the current 4 GW pa run-rate of renewable energy installs needs to accelerate by 50% to deliver on the 82%-renewables-by-2030 target. This looks entirely feasible when one sees the proposals bid into the last Victorian tender. There is a wall of capital and a massive wave of new proposals in the pipeline once the approval and grid access bottlenecks are progressively overcome.”

In acknowledgement of the summer holiday period, AEMO has extended the required consultation period for the Draft 2024 ISP and is seeking written submissions from all stakeholders by 16 February 2024. Stakeholder feedback will inform the final 2024 ISP, due for release by 28 June 2024.

Image credit: iStock.com/Eloi_Omella